PALANTIR STOCK SLIDES DESPITE RECORD RESULTS
In Q3 2025, Palantir reported revenue of $1.181 billion (roughly €1.1 billion), up 63% year-on-year, beating analyst expectations of $1.09 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) hit $0.21 (+110% y/y), while GAAP profit soared 231% to $476 million (€440 million). Free cash flow climbed 46% to $540 million (€500 million). The company holds $6.4 billion (€5.9 billion) in cash and carries zero debt. U.S. commercial revenue jumped an impressive 121%. Palantir also raised guidance once again: Q4 revenue is forecast at $1.33 billion (vs. $1.19 billion expected), and full-year 2025 revenue between $4.396–$4.400 billion (+53%). Despite the stellar numbers, PLTR shares dropped 7.2% during Tuesday’s session, closing around $192 after dipping to $185 intraday. Year-to-date, the stock is still up 156%, with a market capitalisation around $450 billion (€415 billion). For Irish investors, it’s a timely reminder that even outstanding performance can’t always outshine high expectations.
Why did the market react so negatively?
Markets are rarely rational. Palantir crushed expectations, yet investors sold off. Why? Because the share was already priced for perfection — trading at 229× forward free cash flow and more than 200× forward earnings. When valuations climb that high, even great news can trigger a correction.
Overvaluation and profit-taking
Palantir had already gained 150% this year ahead of the results. For traders, it was the perfect opportunity to lock in profits. The reaction mirrored what Irish investors have seen countless times on the ISEQ — when a company rallies too far too fast, even fantastic earnings can’t keep the momentum going.
AI sector jitters
Adding to the pressure, the Nasdaq fell 2% the same day as broader “AI bubble” fears resurfaced. High-valuation tech names across the board — from Nvidia to Super Micro Computer — saw sharp pullbacks. Palantir, as one of the purest AI plays, took the brunt of the hit. It’s the sort of market whiplash that Irish tech investors might recall from global pullbacks in 2022.
The Michael Burry shock factor
Another trigger came from news that Michael Burry — the investor made famous by The Big Short — had put options worth $912 million on Palantir and $187 million on Nvidia, representing 80% of his disclosed portfolio. Although the data was 45 days old, headlines screamed “Big Short 2.0,” sparking algorithmic selling and retail panic.
Valuation >200× forward earnings
Nasdaq down 2% on AI fears
Burry’s positions rattled confidence
Algorithms accelerated the drop
Profit-taking after 156% YTD surge
So, this wasn’t a case of weakening business fundamentals — it was the psychology of “too much, too soon” at work, something every seasoned Irish investor has seen before.
Robust fundamentals, stronger guidance
Behind the sell-off, Palantir’s numbers remain exceptional. The company continues to grow rapidly while maintaining profitability — a rare feat among AI-focused software firms. Think of it as a blend of Microsoft’s steady margins and Nvidia’s innovation drive, but in enterprise data intelligence.
U.S. commercial business booming
Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue grew 121%, driven by adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). The software helps companies make faster, data-driven decisions — not unlike how Ireland’s own financial institutions and logistics firms are embracing AI analytics to boost productivity.
Debt-free and cash-loaded
With $6.4 billion (€5.9 billion) in cash and no debt, Palantir has an enviable balance sheet. That kind of liquidity allows the firm to expand through acquisitions, reinvest in innovation, and weather any macro turbulence — something even Irish corporates like CRH or Kingspan can appreciate from experience.
Guidance raised again
Management lifted revenue projections for the fourth consecutive quarter: Q4 guidance now sits at $1.33 billion (€1.23 billion), with full-year 2025 free cash flow expected between $1.9 and $2.1 billion (€1.75–€1.95 billion). That’s a sign of confidence rarely seen in such a fast-evolving AI sector.
Revenue: +63%
EPS: +110%
GAAP profit: +231%
Free cash flow: +46%
Cash: $6.4B
Debt: 0
For Irish investors, it’s a case study in disciplined execution — the kind of financial consistency that can underpin long-term compounding, even through market turbulence.
Opportunity for long-term investors?
For traders, a 7% drop hurts. But for long-term investors who understand that volatility often accompanies innovation, this may be a golden entry point. Palantir remains a key player in the AI infrastructure boom — a market still in its early innings.
AIP: The AI engine for enterprises
Palantir’s AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) has become mission-critical software for corporations adopting AI across operations. Each new deployment strengthens its network effect — similar to how Microsoft Office or SAP became irreplaceable in their respective eras.
Valuation support and investor psychology
The $185–190 level (roughly €170–€175) has emerged as a key technical support zone. With a recent high of $207 (€190), the current pullback appears more like a healthy breather than a breakdown. Investors who’ve “bought the dip” below €175 throughout 2025 have consistently been rewarded.
+156% YTD before correction
AI sector still in early growth phase
Zero debt, strong cash position
Expanding global enterprise adoption
Support around €175 ($190)
For Irish investors who see AI as the next decade’s defining theme — much like semiconductors in the 2000s or fintech in the 2010s — Palantir’s dip looks less like a warning and more like an invitation. Strong fundamentals, real earnings, and a leading position make it one to watch — or even to own — for the long haul.
